14 años después, Siria sigue en una encrucijada: ¿Hacia dónde se dirige el país?

This article was originally published in Arabic

At 14 years after the revolution, Syria remains in conflict, economic decline, and forced displacement. In March 2025, the Al Sharaa Constitutional Declaration sparked controversy by defining Islamic jurisprudence as a source of legislation and the religion of the Head of State.

On March 15, 2011, Syrians took to the city of Daraa in events that marked the beginning of a popular uprising against the regime of President Bashar Al Assad. What started as peaceful protests quickly turned into a bloody conflict with escalating violence and the emergence of armed factions, including extremist groups.

International actors became involved in the conflict, turning Syria into a stage for complex regional and international conflicts. Today, 14 years later, the country has undergone fundamental transformations in political, economic, and social arenas, the latest of which was the signing of the new constitutional declaration by the interim government president, Ahmad de Sharaa, redefining the contours of the future Syrian state.

From Protests to Armed Conflict

The Syrian revolution began with democratic reforms but escalated into extreme violence by the regime and various armed groups fighting across Syrian territory from north to south. The country became divided between areas controlled by the regime, opposition-controlled zones, and areas held by extremist organizations like ISIS and Al-Nusra, which later evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al Joulani (currently Ahmad al Sharaa) before their influence waned due to international interventions.

With Russian intervention in 2015 followed by Lebanese Hezbollah and other armed groups, the Syrian regime regained control of most areas previously held by armed opposition, benefiting from Russian air cover and Iranian military support. However, the war has not been completely resolved.

There are still areas outside Damascus’ control, especially in northern Syria, where opposition factions supported by Turkey are present in Idlib and Aleppo (northwest) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) supported by the United States.

Economic Situation: Unprecedented Collapse

In recent years, the Syrian economy has been in a constant state of collapse, with the Syrian pound losing over 99% of its value since 2011. The daily life of a Syrian citizen quickly turned into real suffering due to massive inflation, lack of purchasing power, and constant shortages of electricity and water.

Food prices skyrocketed, and over 90% of the population lives below the poverty line. Western sanctions, regime mismanagement of the economy, and lack of investments have all contributed to worsening the situation, while Russian and Iranian efforts to support the regime have not provided effective solutions to save the economy.

On the other hand, forced population movements, whether through military operations or economic strangulation, have led to significant demographic changes. Millions of people have fled the country, turning the refugee crisis into one of the largest humanitarian crises of modern times.

Syrians in the diaspora face legal and social challenges in host countries, amid growing pressure to return to Syria, despite the lack of security guarantees, even after the regime’s fall. The country has witnessed sectarian violence, with Islamist militants taking control of the government, and security remains unstable with unofficial armed groups still capable of engaging in violent acts against citizens for reasons of revenge, sectarianism, or ethnicity.

Continued Movement and International Pressure

With a brutal war lasting nearly 14 years, the situation of relocated Syrians has become one of the most complex. The number of Syrian refugees has exceeded 6.5 million, distributed in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Europe, while those returning to Syria face catastrophic humanitarian conditions.

Despite pressure from some countries for refugees to return, the absence of a comprehensive political agreement that restores stability and security, as well as the lack of basic services, makes their return almost impossible. The United Nations and human rights organizations continue to warn against refugees returning to Syria without real guarantees for their safety, but many governments, especially in Europe and Turkey, are moving to impose strict measures on Syrians, forcing them to return or gradually deport them.

The Constitutional Declaration Establishes Islamic Jurisprudence

On March 13, 2025, amidst ongoing instability, Ahmad de Sharaa, the interim president of Syria, announced the signing of a «Constitutional Declaration» defining the overall framework of the new political system in Syria, aiming to establish a legal basis for the transitional period.

The declaration sparked broad controversy due to the inclusion of an article stating that Islamic jurisprudence would be the main source of legislation in the country, along with specifying Islam as the religion of the head of state. Supporters of the declaration argue that it reflects the identity of Syrian society and preserves dominant religious values, while other parties, especially secular movements and religious minorities, oppose it, arguing that it perpetuates the religious character of the state instead of building an inclusive civil system.

Regionally, some countries welcome the declaration as a step towards ending chaos and establishing stability, while other international powers like the European Union consider it an obstacle to building a democratic and pluralistic state.

Where is Syria Headed?

On the swiftest anniversary of the Syrian revolution, the country remains deeply unstable. A real political agreement has not been reached, while the economic and social situation deteriorates daily. With internal political divisions and external interventions, Syria stands at a crossroads between reconstruction under the influence of regional and international powers or continued chaos it has endured for years.

In addition to all the above, starting March 6, 2025, the country witnessed sectarian violence on the Syrian coast, where security forces were initially targeted by groups supporting the former regime and later massacres ensued, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Alawite minorities, members of other minority communities, and Sunni Muslims.

In response to these events, Ahmed Al Sharaa formed the National Investigation Committee to determine responsibilities and take necessary punitive measures against those responsible for the violations. However, opponents claim that the transitional president is lenient with the perpetrators of these crimes, whose photos of the killings circulated on social media, and that his administrations had shown signs of support for those who instigated violence against Alawites and other minorities.

At the same time, Al Sharaa and the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), representing Kurds in the east of the country, signed a historic agreement to integrate militants and coordinate political administration in the next phase, raising hopes that Syrians remain unified against separatist tendencies declared in previous years.

Israeli expansion in southern Syria after the fall of the Assad regime is a significant concern for Syrians. Israeli forces advanced tens of kilometers and occupied strategic points in Mount Hermon and the provinces of Quneitra and Suwayda. Israeli officials have stated they will remain there indefinitely to protect the Druze minority, the majority population in Sweida and the Syrian target.

Lack of stability, dire economic conditions, ongoing Israeli incursions, dozens of attacks on the disbanded Syrian army and Syrian armed forces’ properties, internal social tensions, and concerns about the orientations of the new leaders’ first steps. Fears about Syria’s future are growing after 14 years of suffering, pain, and destruction, with millions dead, injured, and displaced.

The country is on a very distressing path, with progress hanging by a thread amid regional fires, winds of foreign ambitions, and internal concerns, while its people continue to aspire to the freedom and dignity they marched for 14 years ago.

FUENTE